Bellona Notat/Bellona Paper:
A Model for the CO2 Capture Potential

By Dr. Aage Stangeland, The Bellona Foundation

Summary
Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and the
consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO2 emissions. Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO2 emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO2 emissions on a shorter time scale. A model to calculate the CO2 capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 30 billion tonnes CO2 can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 240 billion tonnes CO2 can be captured by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO2 emissions by 56 % in the EU and 37 % globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today. Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate, however, and the strategy to achieve the necessary CO2 emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.